MORE BALLS THAN CRYSTAL

So, it's that time of the year again, where the filmmaking community commonly known as "Hollywood" hand out surprisingly large gold statuettes to those it decides have waited long enough for universal recognition, and we the viewer are treated to dance sequences, speeches and whatever "innovation" (their word, not mine) the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences believes will shake up the ceremony... all of which can be summed up in one succinct word: INTERMINABLE.



What's more, we don't even have a comic host this year... I'm as much a fan of Hugh Jackman as the next guy, but I tend to enjoy the Oscars most when a slightly subversive loose cannon is at the wheel -- Rock, Stewart, Martin, hell, even Letterman -- and, as charming and affable as Jackman is, he ain't that guy. (It doesn't help that I've long held a vain hope to see Robin Williams have a crack before he moves into senior citizenry... just one last tommy-gun blast of stream-of-consciousness, near-offensive take-no-prisoners free-association to remind us all how great the man once was... but back to topic.) I'm interested to see what he does with it. No doubt it will involve song, which always gives me the shudders.

And please, DON'T get me started on the underwhelming crop of nominees we have this year. I haven't been this uninspired by a Best Picture field since 2000/01, when GLADIATOR, CHOCOLAT, ERIN BROCKOVICH and CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON duked it out (the slow-moving but smart, stylish and inspired TRAFFIC was the only pistol in the bunch). There's only three awards I'm really invested in tonight, and all I'm gonna say is this: Good luck Mickey Rourke, Marisa Tomei and PRESTO. I'm pulling for ya. (I should throw WALL-E, for Best Animated Feature, in there, too.)

As this is an Oscar predix blog (as Variety would call it), I should get my tips in: a) before my Australian friends, buffs and tragics go into their yearly, Oscar-imposed Media Blackout, and b) before the awards are actually announced. So no more waffling. For the time being, anyway.

BEST PICTURE
Who WILL win: SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE (I'm gonna be saying this a lot, unfortunately). It's won everything to date, and the Mumbai-to-London transcontinental express sure as hell ain't gonna stop here.
Who I'd LIKE to win: I've only seen three of the nominees -- BUTTON, NIXON and SLUMDOG -- and was underwhelmed by all of them. Push comes to shove, I would very narrowly choose FROST/NIXON over Ben Button.

BEST DIRECTOR
Who WILL win: Danny Boyle, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE. The right guy for the wrong movie. From everything I've ever seen and heard from the man, he seems like one of the genuinely nicest dudes in the business, so I can't begrudge him this. And that's all I have to say about that.
Who I'd LIKE to win: David Fincher, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON. Again, I've only seen 3 of the 5 nominees, but for mine, this was the best directed film of the three, as most of the film's problems lie in the script (and one of the lead performances). I still maintain that the first 60-70 minutes of this film are utterly spellbinding.

BEST ACTOR
Who WILL win: Sean Penn, MILK. It's the year of Proposition 8, and the (sadly mostly closeted) gay-heavy Academy won't let that go unnoticed. Plus, I hear Penn's really great in it. I thought he should get the Oscar for smiling, alone. Have we ever seen him do that? (In the 27 years since Jeff Spicoli, anyway.)
Who I'd LIKE to win: Mickey Rourke, THE WRESTLER. A big, brave, bold body-slam of a performance, which seemed to be where Rourke's painful, rollicking, messy and messed-up life was leading all along. Just a man baring his heart and soul on the screen for all to see, thanks to Best Director nominee Darren Aronofsky-- huh? Whaddya mean he wasn't nominated?!? But, did they see the film??? What, no Best Picture nomination either?!!?? Arrrrrggghhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(TSIK walks away to headbutt a brick wall several times, before returning.)

BEST ACTRESS
Who WILL win: Kate Winslet, THE READER. Between this and the overlooked REVOLUTIONARY ROAD, the Great Kate Mk II has swept all before her this award season. She's snagged more nominations (six) than any 33 year old in movie history, and it's time for her moment to arrive.
Who I'd LIKE to win: Kate Winslet, THE READER. Because it's Kate Winslet. I've not seen the movie; in fact, the only nominee I've seen is Angelina Jolie's fairly standard and serviceable turn in the resoundingly poor CHANGELING, which has no business getting nominated for anything.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who WILL win, I'd LIKE to win and is a CERTAINTY to win: Heath Ledger, THE DARK KNIGHT. Even if tragedy hadn't befallen him, they'd still be giving him a statue today. (The author says this brazenly, having not seen three of the five nominees.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who WILL win: Penelope Cruz, VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA. To quote the Eagles, I can't tell you why. In a tough, evenly spread category, she seems the most flashy and likely.
Who I'd LIKE to win: Marisa Tomei, THE WRESTLER. In a role 16 years and 180 degrees away from her last appearance here, for MY COUSIN VINNY, Tomei is real, raw and ragingly brilliant.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Who WILL win: Dustin Lance Black, MILK. By all accounts, the main driving force behind this film getting made, which may explain why his name is given ridiculously large prominence on the film's trailer and poster. Did a bang-up job, by all accounts.
Who I'd LIKE to win: Having only seen IN BRUGES, HAPPY-GO-LUCKY and WALL-E, I would have to say THE WRESTLER. Wha-- it wasn't nominated for this either?!?!??? In light of this, I happily throw my weight behind the endless and seemingly effortless storytelling genius of Pixar (namely, Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter and Jim Reardon -- hey, wasn't he played by River Phoenix in the '80s??) and WALL-E. Beautiful stuff.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Who WILL win: Simon Beaufoy, for you guessed it, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE. For months, I had Peter Morgan's FROST/NIXON written in pen to win this... until Beaufoy won the WGA award. Seems conducive to a SLUMDOG sweep now.
Who I'd LIKE to win: Anything but that. From the three I've seen, FROST/NIXON was the most impressive. Peter Morgan continues to put fascinating spins on true-life figures.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Who WILL win & Who I'd LIKE to win: WALL-E. Another which shoulda been a contender for the big prize.

...and my picks for the rest...

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: THE CLASS (France)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: THE DARK KNIGHT
BEST ART DIRECTION: THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: THE DUCHESS
BEST FILM EDITING: SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING: WALL-E
BEST SOUND EFFECTS MIXING: THE DARK KNIGHT
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
BEST MAKEUP: THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: WALL-E
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE ("Jai Ho")
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: ENCOUNTERS AT THE END OF THE WORLD -- A terrific docu which should pip popular favourite MAN ON WIRE at the post. I just wanna see Herzog give an Oscar speech.
BEST SHORT FILM, DOCUMENTARY: THE WITNESS: FROM THE BALCONY OF ROOM 306 -- One of my only two complete stabs in the dark (along with Best Supporting Actress). I know nothing about any of the nominees, and this one just sounds right. And by "this one", I mean, this title.
BEST SHORT FILM, ANIMATED: PRESTO -- Pixar's best short ever. Inspired, hilarious and balls-out brilliant. Puts pretenders like FOR THE BIRDS and BOUNDIN' into the shade.
BEST SHORT FILM, LIVE ACTION: NEW BOY -- It's the only one I've seen, and it's absolutely terrific.

Here's hoping you all do well in your respective Oscar pools, and that some of the truly best films of 2008 -- namely WALL-E and THE WRESTLER -- and take home some goldness this afternoon, Aussie time.

Later gators,
TSIK